Rookie Fever Out of Control!

[dantzig]

View attachment 17042

Saw it now in the facebook swap group I'm managing... immediately banned him and another guy who asked for prices.

NO MERCY FOR THESE F*****S!!!

 

[D8ct9r]

NO MERCY FOR THESE F*****S!!!

Finally found the time to check the PSA population and this is too funny. Already around 150 PSA 10 WC 2018 Mbappé stickers. Not really rare is it, especially with the backlog at PSA


Let's see how fast they pop up on eBay, before it's too late for "investors"

Either way new collections should go back to normal pretty fast - This is what should happen given such information, but most likely PSA 10s will just remained unsold as "investors" will not want to record a loss - Just keep in mind that there's nothing rare about them and stay away at current prices (USD 350 was the last one - public at least).

But I do think that old stickers (pre 2006 - Messi and CR mark the break point) will keep rising and there's little collectors can do about it, as those are actually rare in good condition.

 

[dantzig]

In all this rookie tragedy, what I find more funny in that table is those who spent money to grade something worse than a 9... Are you really that dumb to send something to grade that is clearly not going to have a good evaluation? A 4 or 5 is a shitty sticker, how come you, peanut brain, thought it was worth to grade?

Anyway, you're right about those unsold stickers, the "investors" (have much cruel names for them though) will not resell them for lower prices, probably they prefer to keep them in thousands than "giving back" to the market.

Brace yourselves for this new Euro set and I don't want to even think about what will happen in 2022 WC... unless Panini and Topps do something about it, which I'm not optimistic too.

 

[Jamiepr74]

I reached out to Dan Lyden who is an Ecommerce Manager at Topps Europe to ask about the so called "rookie" situation, and he took the time out to respond. This kind of was the reply that I was expecting, so not much of a surprise.

"What you are asking is why we don't keep printing to make sure everyone who wants a sticker or card gets one.

Well, we have a production print run for all retail products and this is a big undertaking for the company, months of planning, printing and distribution. They aren't set up to print individual cards and stickers - apart from print on demand projects where everyone who wants a card can order one. So we can't just go back and say, 'can we reprint 85 Haaland cards'. The printer set up alone would be into the thousands. We print all cards in equal volume or to a specified rarity.

Some are bound to be more popular and thus command a higher value than others, I'm not sure how we can avoid that. Once value is placed on a card people will look to own more of them. I'm not sure how we could police that to see if they have a genuine need as a completist or they are looking to sell. If that wasn't happening all card investing would stop and resale prices would be drop to the price of a packet. That is actually a big part of why a lot of people collect and they, like people who are only out to collect, facilitate our ability to create and sell products. Like it or not, the secondary market is a huge part of what makes the industry tick. We aim to balance this out by tuning the volume we create to the demand we see. I hope that helps, I will say that we are monitoring the markets all of the time."

 

[dantzig]

I reached out to Dan Lyden who is an Ecommerce Manager at Topps Europe to ask about the so called "rookie" situation, and he took the time out to respond. This kind of was the reply that I was expecting, so not much of a surprise.

"What you are asking is why we don't keep printing to make sure everyone who wants a sticker or card gets one.

Well, we have a production print run for all retail products and this is a big undertaking for the company, months of planning, printing and distribution. They aren't set up to print individual cards and stickers - apart from print on demand projects where everyone who wants a card can order one. So we can't just go back and say, 'can we reprint 85 Haaland cards'. The printer set up alone would be into the thousands. We print all cards in equal volume or to a specified rarity.

Some are bound to be more popular and thus command a higher value than others, I'm not sure how we can avoid that. Once value is placed on a card people will look to own more of them. I'm not sure how we could police that to see if they have a genuine need as a completist or they are looking to sell. If that wasn't happening all card investing would stop and resale prices would be drop to the price of a packet. That is actually a big part of why a lot of people collect and they, like people who are only out to collect, facilitate our ability to create and sell products. Like it or not, the secondary market is a huge part of what makes the industry tick. We aim to balance this out by tuning the volume we create to the demand we see. I hope that helps, I will say that we are monitoring the markets all of the time."

I kinda understand the "balance" he claims, but in sticker cases, it's not balanced at all... Therefore, some considerations:

So we can't just go back and say, 'can we reprint 85 Haaland cards'.
Yes they can. He even gave the On Demand example, so they could consider this On Demand too.

We print all cards in equal volume or to a specified rarity.
No they don't. There's always stickers printed more. What he can say is they print all different sheets in equal volume, but a sheet might have more of one sticker than other. Topps actually doesn't do this much, but Panini does more. And even so, I doubt very much they print equal volume of different sheets, just check last UCL where playoff and italian teams are not featured in starter, multipack or tins, making them rarer.

Some are bound to be more popular and thus command a higher value than others, I'm not sure how we can avoid that.
Print more. Solution in my first paragraph. We're not asking for printing something that is clearly rarer (autographs, parallels, whatever), we're asking mostly for stickers printing to not let stickers sets dying. It's immoral to have already so many sets unable to complete because of that "investment" hoarding. We're not the US market and stickers are not meant for it. Stop complying.

I'm not sure how we could police that to see if they have a genuine need as a completist or they are looking to sell.
Oh you can tell right away for sure... but it's not the staff job to police that, so..... print more?

If that wasn't happening all card investing would stop and resale prices would be drop to the price of a packet.
I'm sorry, going to rude mode now... What does this guy not understand? It's mostly STICKERS! S-T-I-C-K-E-R-S! These stickers were not meant to be invested like some rookie card created in America! They were created as part of a 400 or 500 sticker set!

That is actually a big part of why a lot of people collect
He's confusing collecting with reselling. A lot of people now do NOT collect, many just joined the hobby with the sole purpose of reselling.

Like it or not, the secondary market is a huge part of what makes the industry tick.
"Like it or not, the secondary market is absorbing and destroying the main market, but who cares as long the money is in our pockets."

I hope that helps, I will say that we are monitoring the markets all of the time."
We know they monitore it, that's why they created a Rising Star in UCL sticker set (never done in the past) and they are flooding their online website with rookies too... And you know what, I'm ok with it, because they are mostly single cards or high-end products where the main purpose was investing in some player or team.


Bottomline is, we don't want to stop the investing or whatever he wants to call it. You have a market for it, explore the hell you want it! But we want mainly the sticker sets protected from these hoarders. Why is it so wrong to print more of the needed stickers (at least the current ones!), but it's ok to accept hoarders to ruin the hobby of millions?

 

[D8ct9r]

Print runs will increase for future set we can be sure of that, because Panini/Toops know that there’s enough demand and at larger print runs per sticker/card costs are even lower. This per sticker costs are the main goal for them and while they could essentially made a 200 print sheet of Haaland for example, print run could not be large enough to make it profitable for them (assuming that per sticker price for end buyers would not change).

While I don’t see how “investors” could turn a profit on 2018 – 2020 stickers in the long run if they were buying at late 2020 prices, I don’t see stickers hitting the market at lower prices (as I already wrote in the previous post). But this period is also mostly lost for collectors and many sets will remain incomplete. Going forward I see large( r) print runs so stickers should be easier to get.

No they don't. There's always stickers printed more. What he can say is they print all different sheets in equal volume, but a sheet might have more of one sticker than other. Topps actually doesn't do this much, but Panini does more. And even so, I doubt very much they print equal volume of different sheets, just check last UCL where playoff and italian teams are not featured in starter, multipack or tins, making them rarer.

It will be interesting to see if, for UEFA Euro, Panini will pick such number of stickers per set that this could be taken for the advantage of collectors or not. Or even going a step further so that Mbappe and the company could be part of 6 stickers that are part of albums (on the front and back cover). But I wouldn't put my money on that.

 

[dantzig]

Print runs will increase for future set we can be sure of that, because Panini/Toops know that there’s enough demand and at larger print runs per sticker/card costs are even lower. This per sticker costs are the main goal for them and while they could essentially made a 200 print sheet of Haaland for example, print run could not be large enough to make it profitable for them (assuming that per sticker price for end buyers would not change).

While I don’t see how “investors” could turn a profit on 2018 – 2020 stickers in the long run if they were buying at late 2020 prices, I don’t see stickers hitting the market at lower prices (as I already wrote in the previous post). But this period is also mostly lost for collectors and many sets will remain incomplete. Going forward I see large( r) print runs so stickers should be easier to get.



It will be interesting to see if, for UEFA Euro, Panini will pick such number of stickers per set that this could be taken for the advantage of collectors or not. Or even going a step further so that Mbappe and the company could be part of 6 stickers that are part of albums (on the front and back cover). But I wouldn't put my money on that.

Tbh, it's not about publisers making profit of Haalands or whatever the case, it's about solidarity. They are obviously not forced to print more because some morons decided to "invest" on buying thousands of a certain rookie. They, the publishers, did their part. However, they have millions to attend and judging by how this goes, it's a matter of WEEKS for certain stickers to be sold out... and that will lead to thousands of complaints for X sticker is sold out, many of them would give up on collecting and in a instant, we're left with just speculators because real collectors will be fed up with all this crap!

I know for sure we wont' get 2019 prices, even if publishers start printing more of the desired stickers/cards. Pandora Box was opened and it won't ever be closed. To me, it's actually like this SARS virus, we can mitigate it but never erase the problem... So what can we do? Live with it affordably, so in stickers case, with prices that we can still consider high, but not impossible to complete a set.

I said that somewhere before, how those "doubles" in printing could be of the most sought players or possible wanted rookies... Panini did that with Mbappé sticker in Euro 2020 Preview, it's one of the few easy stickers of the set, but I'm 100% sure it was by pure coincidence... And I'm also sure that if it wasn't for that, we would quickly have another Mbappé sticker sold out (not as quick as the orange version because of printing run, but wouldn't take long)... But anyway, that would definitely be the best approach for me, it avoids reprints (at least in the short run, so more chances for everyone complete the set) and would still keep "happy" the secondary market, as that Topps guy called it... Topps and Panini, need to fill your sheets with more doubles? Pick Ronaldo, Messi, Mbappé, Haaland, rookies, etc... Problem (partially) solved!

 

[gaspy]

..... we want mainly the sticker sets protected from these hoarders. Why is it so wrong to print more of the needed stickers (at least the current ones!), but it's ok to accept hoarders to ruin the hobby of millions?

I would just like to highlight this sentence, because it is mainly on this point that the whole 'rookies' question revolves.
The sticker collections are absolutely not similar to those of cards, they require a different printing strategy (different ratio) and often are aimed at different users, with different purchasing power.
Much more than card collections, sticker albums MUST BE COMPLETED, and publishers (mainly Panini and Topps) MUST GUARANTEE anyone to be able to finish the album.
It is NOT acceptable that after a few weeks from the release of a collection certain stickers are already unavailable on official online stores.

 

[Jamiepr74]

I would just like to highlight this sentence, because it is mainly on this point that the whole 'rookies' question revolves.
The sticker collections are absolutely not similar to those of cards, they require a different printing strategy (different ratio) and often are aimed at different users, with different purchasing power.
Much more than card collections, sticker albums MUST BE COMPLETED, and publishers (mainly Panini and Topps) MUST GUARANTEE anyone to be able to finish the album.
It is NOT acceptable that after a few weeks from the release of a collection certain stickers are already unavailable on official online stores.

This......

 

[dantzig]

New Panini UK sale:

2020/2021 Hoops Basketball Hobby Box

<p>• Collect all of the different, unique Hobby-exclusive insert designs that showcase NBA Stars, old and new, with tons of variety! Chase the High Voltage, HIPnotized, Prime Twine and many more sets that can only be found in Hobby product! <br />&bu

collectibles.panini.co.uk

So here we go, rookies again... However, this is not a walk in the park for the specul....ahem, "investors"... Not a NBA expert by far, but price looks expensive? And, a bit satisfying to read this:

* Please note: The 2021/2021 Hoops Basketball Hobby Box is limited to a maximum of 1 item per customer / household. We would like to make this collection possible for as many customers as possible and ask you to refrain from multiple orders. The orders are accepted by us with reservation and can be cancelled at any time.

This I think we can all accept, a Rookie set that won't disturb other sets.

 

[Ole]

New Panini UK sale:

2020/2021 Hoops Basketball Hobby Box

<p>• Collect all of the different, unique Hobby-exclusive insert designs that showcase NBA Stars, old and new, with tons of variety! Chase the High Voltage, HIPnotized, Prime Twine and many more sets that can only be found in Hobby product! <br />&bu

collectibles.panini.co.uk

So here we go, rookies again... However, this is not a walk in the park for the specul....ahem, "investors"... Not a NBA expert by far, but price looks expensive? And, a bit satisfying to read this:

* Please note: The 2021/2021 Hoops Basketball Hobby Box is limited to a maximum of 1 item per customer / household. We would like to make this collection possible for as many customers as possible and ask you to refrain from multiple orders. The orders are accepted by us with reservation and can be cancelled at any time.

This I think we can all accept, a Rookie set that won't disturb other sets.

I think you have to differentiate here. It's a US collection where rookie cards are a natural part of every collection.

But where I am with you is the abnormal price development. And there we have a big difference between the two manufacturers. While Topps still sells most of its premium boxes at a hobby-friendly price, Panini is currently picking up what is possible with the price.

One of the best examples: Panini's NFL Donruss Optic Football Cards. Price for a Hobby Box of the 2018 collection was around 150 USD, for the 2019 collection it was around 250 USD and this year we are at 650 USD for a box of the 2020 collection with the same content like in the years before (except for the quality, which in contrast to the price has decreased, if you can believe the first reports).

The core of the problem are all the professional breakers in the USA who buy the boxes regardless of the price and thus enable Panini to drive the price higher and higher. Only when they no longer get their breaks full, because no one is willing to risk such a high stake for the result, the trend will reverse.

Everyone can now decide for themselves whether they see Panini as clever or greedy. Because if they want, they could at least keep the initial sale price stable. But after all the recent price increases in the reorder service (discussed in the other thread), I know which of the two options I would choose.

 

[Ole]

And to go back to the Topps story with Dan Lyden: I think it's pretty obvious that his answer was really only about trading cards, while @dantzig was mostly talking about stickers.

Everyone who has been discussing here for a long time knows what Topps thinks of stickers and how well they produce sticker collections. 95% of their business revolves around trading cards. Stickers only get in the way...

What I can understand is that it may not be possible to reprint every type of card (especially the special cards with certain refinements) without any problems at any time. And exactly like the original card. But with the standard stickers, which @dantzig was talking about, that shouldn't be a problem these days, but as I said, I don't think he referred his answer to that at all.

If you read through what he's been posting on social media recently, it quickly becomes clear that he's a huge fan of card flipping (buying to sell at a higher price). And that clearly reflects the development at Topps. A lot is artificially limited in order to increase demand and price. Or you have to buy a lot of unnecessary stuff on top to get some articles. Meanwhile, the standard collections are going down the drain ... This season's UCL Match Attax collection is the best example of this.

But for sticker collections it should be like @gaspy mentioned before. Within a certain period of time (e.g. 1-2 years after the appearance of a collection, it should be possible to reorder every sticker). It cannot be that it is no longer possible to complete albums because some people only order certain stickers all the time. Because of me, they should link it to the sticker albums someone owns so that not everyone can always order the same sticker unlimitedly. Then both manufacturers would not have so many sold out stickers after a few specialists have been ordering the same stickers every week for months.

 

[claudio7788]

The core of the problem are all the professional breakers in the USA who buy the boxes regardless of the price and thus enable Panini to drive the price higher and higher. Only when they no longer get their breaks full, because no one is willing to risk such a high stake for the result, the trend will reverse.

The professionnal breakers are part of the strategy of Panini (loaded boxes/cases?). Also the big sellers in USA are part of the problem, they buy at normal prices at Panini, store everything, buy whatever is around at low prices (bots?) and create shortage. And Topps, just an example, many people pre-ordered Match Attax Chrome, and their preorders were cancelled or partially cancelled, at the same time the box price went from around 75$ to 250$ on Ebay..

 

[chriswiggy]

FUTERA UNIQUE 2006 WORLD FOOTBALL- # 81- LIONEL MESSI - ARGENTINA- | eBay

FUTERA UNIQUE 2006.

www.ebay.co.uk

This standard base card of Messi from the Futera Unique 2006 set has just sold for £220. Another in the US has reached £255 and bidding hasn't stopped yet. Other sellers on eBay are asking between £1000 and £2170 for the same card. I have collected Futera cards since they started in the late 90s and I've never seen prices like this for single base cards, rather than the special insert cards (autos, jerseys, gold etc). The same Futera Unique 2006 base set also has cards of Beckham, Ronaldinho and Ronaldo. The same seller who is asking £1000 for Messi is also asking between £500 and £750 for those cards. Insane.

 

[chriswiggy]

A slight correction to my earlier post. Although this Messi card is dated 2006 it is actually from the Futera World Football Unique 2007 collection.

 

[dantzig]

And to go back to the Topps story with Dan Lyden: I think it's pretty obvious that his answer was really only about trading cards, while @dantzig was mostly talking about stickers.

Everyone who has been discussing here for a long time knows what Topps thinks of stickers and how well they produce sticker collections. 95% of their business revolves around trading cards. Stickers only get in the way...

What I can understand is that it may not be possible to reprint every type of card (especially the special cards with certain refinements) without any problems at any time. And exactly like the original card. But with the standard stickers, which @dantzig was talking about, that shouldn't be a problem these days, but as I said, I don't think he referred his answer to that at all.

If you read through what he's been posting on social media recently, it quickly becomes clear that he's a huge fan of card flipping (buying to sell at a higher price). And that clearly reflects the development at Topps. A lot is artificially limited in order to increase demand and price. Or you have to buy a lot of unnecessary stuff on top to get some articles. Meanwhile, the standard collections are going down the drain ... This season's UCL Match Attax collection is the best example of this.

But for sticker collections it should be like @gaspy mentioned before. Within a certain period of time (e.g. 1-2 years after the appearance of a collection, it should be possible to reorder every sticker). It cannot be that it is no longer possible n theto complete albums because some people only order certain stickers all the time. Because of me, they should link it to the sticker albums someone owns so that not everyone can always order the same sticker unlimitedly. Then both manufacturers would not have so many sold out stickers after a few specialists have been ordering the same stickers every week for months.

After I posted, I realized too he was mostly talking about cards... but I'm pretty sure @Jamiepr74 asked about stickers, because that is the problem now... we don't see cards from Adrenalyn or Match Attax being sold out, at least compared with stickers.

I still remember when I asked the Topps manager I know that if they would print more Haaland stickers (think I asked around June) and he answered basically "no way".

So yeah, they don't care with "small change" when they are selling now single cards for outrageous prices (that Lost Rookie is one of the smartest "scams" I've seen)... Again, I'll say it's a question of solidarity, I don't give a damn about rookies or high-end cards, same with millions of people around the world, so have fun with those... but leave the "normal" collections alone or at least,have publishers protect those.

With minds like Dan, who see no problem in hoarding and reselling, no wonder Topps do not even care if their sticker sets go down the drain... Panini doesn't seem like that, though part of their approaches are still debatable.


Also, yesterday I realized many stickers from FIFA 365 2020 (Int Ed) are already sold out... and what surprise, it's all Messi, Ronaldo, Mbappé, Greenwood, Davies, Haaland

 

[Jamiepr74]

After I posted, I realized too he was mostly talking about cards... but I'm pretty sure @Jamiepr74 asked about stickers, because that is the problem now... we don't see cards from Adrenalyn or Match Attax being sold out, at least compared with stickers.

Your'e right @dantzig - my problem is the stickers full stop. I have never collected the cards as I have no interest in them at all.

It's all great me being able old enough and being able to afford to buy a couple of boxes or a complete collection in one go and have my albums filled. I just want to be able to protect the younger collectors who are just starting out like I did 40 odd years ago. They are the ones that will be collecting stickers for long after I have finished. The parents who can't afford to buy a box or decide to treat their kids to the odd few packs here as a reward and it takes them a few weeks, or months to complete an album.

So when they have a few stickers needed to complete their album, and can't find anyone to swap with, they find that they need to order them online via Panini or Topps and they find that they are out of stock.

So what's the alternative? They decide to look for the missing stickers on eBay instead and find that one of their missing stickers are on sale for about £40 as its a "rookie" and because of this their album will stay incomplete because of these reselling idiots who just want to make a profit.

This happened to me last year as I needed one sticker from the Orange Euro preview edition and had to pay way over the odds just to complete an album. I wasn't happy about it, but I did it and I promised myself not to do it again. There are parents and kids out there that would not be able to do this and it's so disappointing.

I just don't want future collectors to be put of or give up on this fantastic hobby in the future. Topps and Panini simply have to help out all those ordinary collectors out there otherwise this hobby will go the same way that it did here in the UK in the early 90's.....downhill. These companies need us as much as we need them.

 

[DecjeNovineFan]

Finally found the time to check the PSA population and this is too funny. Already around 150 PSA 10 WC 2018 Mbappé stickers. Not really rare is it, especially with the backlog at PSA
View attachment 17079

Let's see how fast they pop up on eBay, before it's too late for "investors"

Either way new collections should go back to normal pretty fast - This is what should happen given such information, but most likely PSA 10s will just remained unsold as "investors" will not want to record a loss - Just keep in mind that there's nothing rare about them and stay away at current prices (USD 350 was the last one - public at least).

But I do think that old stickers (pre 2006 - Messi and CR mark the break point) will keep rising and there's little collectors can do about it, as those are actually rare in good condition.

investors cant lose if they got stickers for free like me and send to PSA pay 15$ per sticker how can i lose ? people like me will never lose , psa 10 or 9 will never go under 15$ never not for 100 years , other investors who pay for sticker 30 40 $ then for grade 15 or more they can lose but on 15$ i will grade all day every day 100 times in row

 

[DecjeNovineFan]

In all this rookie tragedy, what I find more funny in that table is those who spent money to grade something worse than a 9... Are you really that dumb to send something to grade that is clearly not going to have a good evaluation? A 4 or 5 is a shitty sticker, how come you, peanut brain, thought it was worth to grade?

Anyway, you're right about those unsold stickers, the "investors" (have much cruel names for them though) will not resell them for lower prices, probably they prefer to keep them in thousands than "giving back" to the market.

Brace yourselves for this new Euro set and I don't want to even think about what will happen in 2022 WC... unless Panini and Topps do something about it, which I'm not optimistic too.

i have maradona, matheus , platini and few others doubles in my collection maybe 15 stickers total grade is 15$ for each and they are ultra rare decje novine i will got probably 2 or 3 and i grade them because these are impossible to find and will be only one ever graded or if someone in future grade them probably will be few piece of them , also these sticker eaven when they are mint new from bags dont have good centring so they cant get 10 its almost impossible to find maradona decje novine from 82 or any other from 82, 82, 86 that have centring and condition for 10 , so i grade these because i know i will sell them easy, but ok sending to grade new stickers under 9 and you know you will get under 9 is stupid

 

[D8ct9r]

investors cant lose if they got stickers for free like me and send to PSA pay 15$ per sticker how can i lose ? people like me will never lose , psa 10 or 9 will never go under 15$ never not for 100 years , other investors who pay for sticker 30 40 $ then for grade 15 or more they can lose but on 15$ i will grade all day every day 100 times in row

You're probably the only one I ever met that is looking to break even on a PSA 10, or at least thinks that this is a good investment strategy... But to each their own, best of luck.
P. S. How much are the shipping costs and the eBay fees? Asking for a friend