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Panini's algorithm...

Makhno

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#1
The President of Panini France explained on tuesday that the firm uses a special algorithm to randomize all the stickers for a single collection. According to him, every single sticker is produced on the same quantity than every other. He said they were inspected several times by governement agencies that never found irregularities.
The algorithm allows to fill every packet with different stickers, but regarding the 100 packets boxes, the CEO also explained it was calculated to create around 10% of duplicates in each box.
 

Caniggia

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#2
It happens same since several years with Calciatori (if you buy a box of 100 packets); usually with 600 stickers I find less than 50 doubles
 

Pavle

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#4
Ever since they were founded they always claimed "all stickers are equally distributed".
Practice has shown many times this is absolutely incorrect. In my opinion, as the years gone by, albums are getting harder and harder to complete. Luckily there are communities, forums and swapping sites which make things easier. In one way duplicates are necessary for the hobby, because it enables socialization among collectors. Imagine if you bought a box and got 100% completed album. From costs side of view, that's great, but I believe hobby shouldn't be about the money. Duplicates enabled me to meet plenty of people from different parts of world and for that I am thankful.
 

Caniggia

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#5
anyway only strong collectors buy boxes ... rest of world buy single packets (first of all kids or family for kids) ... for this reason usually I have less double than sons of my colleagues :) ... the swap is part of hobby
 

dantzig

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#6
The President of Panini France explained on tuesday that the firm uses a special algorithm to randomize all the stickers for a single collection. According to him, every single sticker is produced on the same quantity than every other. He said they were inspected several times by governement agencies that never found irregularities.
The algorithm allows to fill every packet with different stickers, but regarding the 100 packets boxes, the CEO also explained it was calculated to create around 10% of duplicates in each box.
Panini France president should apologize for calling us stupid with his pretty words. They should be transparent about their work and they only are when there's some TV interested in filming some making-of video.

I can give dozens of collections where some stickers are produced more than others... Just some examples:

FIFA 365 - 14 normal stickers more produced than others (in the iberian edition) and pretty sure there are shinies more easy than others;
World Cup 2014 - 200 normal stickers produced more than others (a complete sheet with 20 players for 10 teams was definitely more printed than others);
Champions League 2014/15 - 30 normal stickers more printed than others. A lot of shinies are more easy than other shinies too;
Euro 2012 - again, the same as World Cup 2014, 200 stickers printed more than others... And shinies? You all know they're more rare than normal stickers.

This is just an example, because there isn't almost any collection with all stickers printed in the same amount... The only one I can remember who is completely homogeneous is World Cup 2010, all stickers were printed in the same quantity, if we talk about sticker boxes and not promos given, like album + 6 stickers

If this is bad? Not really, I don't mind if they produce more from certain stickers than others, it's more "charming" to collect, in my opinion... If they explain the reason why they do it, which is because they print by sheet and not by sticker (one sheet can have to 200 stickers, so they produce by multiples of that sheet), people will understand.

About the doubles, they already make more easy for us to get less doubles per box than what we should get, if everything was completely random (you can't expect to get 450 different stickers in one box without Panini help)... The problem with the sorting machines is they only follow certain patterns and it's not so many different... How many times have any of us opened a packet and claimed "oh, I got the exact same stickers I got in a packet before!"? Employees who insert the piles for sorting usually do the same way, the same order... Even with sorting machine, there wil be countless of patterns repeated, which in the end, makes this whole randomization thing completely predictable.

Caniggia is right though: most people buy some packets from time to time, maybe from different places too, so this makes everything more random... But it's the buyers who do it, not Panini.
 

Caniggia

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#7
I was talking about CALCIATORI, because with WC2014 or Fifa365 I agree with Carlos ... but boxes were 50 packets, so maybe change something... I really dont' know! :confused:
 

Ceesmk

Well-Known Member
#8
For Euro 2004, it was so easy to find the Dutch team that everybody has an important quantity of doubles for these players; same thing for Scotland in Italia 90

For the french league, this is absolutely incorrect; for Foot 2015, I opened 450 sealed packs (!!!) and I didn't find a complete set!!! Some shinnies were missing, and if you look the websites it's the same problem for everybody! You could open 20 and 30 packs and find no shinny sticker...

And remember Women WC 2011...
 

dantzig

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#9
I was talking about CALCIATORI, because with WC2014 or Fifa365 I agree with Carlos ... but boxes were 50 packets, so maybe change something... I really dont' know! :confused:
Doesn't matter if it's 50 or 100 packets, Emiliano... The 10% Panini France president mentioned is actually quite simple to explain: it means there are about 10% doubles printed in the Euro 2016 sheets... Imagine this: Zlatan sticker is printed twice, not once like most stickers... So when the sorting machine picks it up from the piles, he might get the two Zlatan stickers... Here's a double... Now imagine if there are 50 players printed twice... You may get most of them double, considering a box already has 500 stickers.

Do you remember how were 2010 WC boxes? Zero doubles in every box (or most of it), because there weren't any doubles printed in the sheets.

For Euro 2004, it was so easy to find the Dutch team that everybody has an important quantity of doubles for these players; same thing for Scotland in Italia 90

For the french league, this is absolutely incorrect; for Foot 2015, I opened 450 sealed packs (!!!) and I didn't find a complete set!!! Some shinnies were missing, and if you look the websites it's the same problem for everybody! You could open 20 and 30 packs and find no shinny sticker...

And remember Women WC 2011...
Really, the dutch team was the easiest for you in 2004? I remember the easiest was around group B, with Croatia, Sweden, Bulgaria and some other team (just like Euro 2000)... And Michael Owen sticker :p

About french league, probably has the same problem FIFA 365 have: gold shinies are rare and some of them are even more rare... Again, Panini needs to fill a 100-sticker sheet, but you only have 76 gold stickers different... What Panini do? Fill the other 24 spaces with more badges, some even triples or quadruples.

WWC 2011 is still a mystery... Just like Futebol 2011/12 (portuguese league), some stickers were sold out fast... I still believe there was some robbery, maybe an inside job, which led to some stickers becoming extremely rare.
 

Ceesmk

Well-Known Member
#10
In France in 2004 the Dutch team became a nightmare^^ Money for nothing^^
And some years, same problem with albums of the french League; in 2007 there was lots of stickers of Valenciennes team; I remember on ebay, every complete team was sold for 5 or 6 Euros except Valenciennes because everybody had already this team
I didn't know what happened with the shinnies in 2015, but on french forums lots of people (mainly parents^^) were angry because these stickers were too much rare. 450 sealed packs and 12 missing stickers for a 510 stickers set...No comment!

Now I know why the complete set Futebol 2012 is sold out in Panini! Very rare for the portuguese albums, this is the explanation!
I've got a problem with Topps Premier League 2013; I need some stickers, they are sold out too. Panini is not the only one.
 

Sergio Z

Active Member
Contributor
#11
In my own personal experience, I can give the following diagnosis about probability and randomness of stickers, with levels of difficulty:

World Cup and Copa America collections: Easy
There are just a few rare stickers, and difference between amounts are not so big. I'd say that the doubles ratio in a box (display) is of 1 or 2%.

Champions League collections (Panini, not sure about Topps): Moderate
Almost the same as World Cup, but with more rare stickers. The doubles ratio increases to an average 10%.

Euro Cup collections: Hard
Shinies are the hardest ones, but some of them are easier than others. The doubles ratio increases to an average 20%, not to mention that between boxes the thing get serious.

Local league collections, Canada 2015 and FIFA 365: Insane
I remember Peruvian league albums had too many rare special stickers, and they were rare as hell (one in three or four boxes). Many friends around Latin America have told me they live kinda the same situation. More recently, I would add WWC and FIFA 365 to this list; the latter, the hardest collection ever.
Although, according to Emiliano, there's an exception: Calciatori stickers.

Of course, this may vary between zones and countries, but from what I have seen, this is more or less how it works.

So, the phrase "stickers are printed and distributed on same quantities" is bullsh*t. I think that's not a secret anymore. :p

PS: I agree with @Pavle when he says randomness and rareness of some stickers are part of the hobby, but I think there should be a balance. For me, moderate albums are perfect.
 
#12
I remember in 2006 for the World Cup I could never find the Calciatori logo sticker, nor could anyone else on trade forums here. I went on holiday in Croatia and met someone who wanted to swap and he had about five of them.
 

Caniggia

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Contributor
#13
I remember in 2006 for the World Cup I could never find the Calciatori logo sticker, nor could anyone else on trade forums here. I went on holiday in Croatia and met someone who wanted to swap and he had about five of them.
that sticker has a strange story ... Panini sold as part of updates, so it exist one with back written and one with nothing in the back ... honesty I don't remember reason
 

Sergio Z

Active Member
Contributor
#15
I remember in 2006 for the World Cup I could never find the Calciatori logo sticker, nor could anyone else on trade forums here. I went on holiday in Croatia and met someone who wanted to swap and he had about five of them.
I think there are too many myths around that sticker. Actually, it's not that hard to get it, to say I opened 100 packets from a box (display) and I got two of them, and the appearance ratio is one per box (average). You should be really unlucky to miss it in 2 or 3 boxes. The reason why it's hard to swap at forums is because people just keep it; due to its design, they think it's a rare sticker, thus they might receive something "important" for it. That increases its rareness.
 

Makhno

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#16
people just keep it; they think it's a rare sticker thus they might receive "something" important for it. That increases the rareness of it
It can't be denied. In most swapping forums in France, people ask, at least, 2 normal stickers to swap with a shiny one. I realized it is even worst in South America.
 

Sergio Z

Active Member
Contributor
#17
It can't be denied. In most swapping forums in France, people ask, at least, 2 normal stickers to swap with a shiny one. I realized it is even worst in South America.
Well, it depends. If you're swapping regular shinies, it's the same (2 normal stickers for a shiny one). But if it's a "special" sticker (like Calciatori seal or FIFA 365 local stickers), the amount increases. Not to mention that Italian and Brazilian stickers have different values (Italians are top quality stickers; therefore, they're more valuable). Sad but true.

To make it fair, I never swap shinies with normal stickers; I swap shinies with shinies. However, I don't mind when I swap large amounts of stickers; all are worth the same. :)

To determine which ones are "special" and which ones are not, just take a look at the appearence ratio for every sticker at boxes and where stickers were released. That's my advice. To give an example, I would never swap a Calciatori sticker for 5 or 6 stickers, no way!
 
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#18
I realized it is even worst in South America.
Well, it depends. Always there's someone who wants to max is profit, but in my collectors community is not much tolerated that attitude (at least here in Chile). That's maybe because we are few collectors and we almost all know us (personally or by internet). So, of course there're people who demands 2x1, 3x1 or even 5x1, but the golden rule of 1x1 is, normally respected.

Having said that, yeah, there're here stickers lot more rarer tha others: as an example, the 319 from the Scotiabank 2013-14 is extremely insanely madnessly hard to find, or half of the U. de Chile stickers (specially the logo) in the FIFA 365. And that's why is very difficult too complete that special set.
 
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